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New inflation numbers for March 2012 were announced on April 13th, so it’s time for the usual semi-annual update and rate predictions.

New Inflation Rate
September 2011 CPI-U was 226.889. March 2012 CPI-U was 229.392, for a semi-annual increase of 1.1032%. Using the official formula, the variable interest rate for the next 6 months will be approximately 2.21%, depending on the upcoming fixed rate announcement (although really it’s highly unlikely to be anything but zero).

Purchase and Redemption Timing Tips
You can’t redeem until 12 months have gone by, and any redemptions within 5 years incur a interest penalty of the last 3 months of interest. A known “trick” with I-Bonds is that if you buy at the end of the month, you’ll still get all the interest for the entire month as if you bought it in the beginning of the month. It’s best to give yourself a few business days of buffer time though, since if you wait too long your effective purchase date may be bumped into the next month.

Buying in April

If you buy before the end of April, the fixed rate portion of I-Bonds will be 0.0%. You will be guaranteed the current variable interest rate of 3.06% for the next 6 months, for a total rate of 0 + 3.06 = 3.06%. For the 6 months after that, the total rate will be 0.0 + 2.21 = 2.21%. Let’s say we hold for the minimum of one year and pay the 3-month interest penalty. If you buy on April 30th and sell on April 1, 2013, you’ll earn a 2.27% annualized return for an 11-month holding period, for which the interest is also exempt from state income taxes. This is better than any 1-year bank CD that I can find right now, keeping in mind the liquidity concerns and the purchase limits.

Given the combination of current low rates and the fact that you lose the last 3 months of interest (again, for holding less than 5 years), it might be better to wait long enough to grab 12 full months of interest by holding for 15 months (14 buying late). If you buy on April 30th and hold until July 1st, 2013, you’d achieve a annualized return of ~2.26% over 14 months. After that, you can see what the new rates are and decide whether to keep holding them.

Buying in May

If you wait until May, you will get a new unknown fixed rate plus 2.21% for the first 6 months. I would bet my own money that that the fixed rate will be 0.0% again (any takers?), given current real yields for TIPS. The next 6 months will be based on an unknown rate based on future inflation. If there is high inflation for the next 6-month period, this may get you a higher rate sooner, but buying in April will eventually get you the same rate anyway.

My personal opinion is that you might as well lock on the guaranteed above-market rates for 12 months by buying in April instead of buying in May. You could always wait all the way until in October for the next rate announcement, but if you have the cash now you’ll have the opportunity cost of lower rates until then.

Low Purchase Limits
The annual purchase limit is now $10,000 in online I-bonds per Social Security Number. For a couple, that’s $20,000 per year. Buy online at TreasuryDirect.gov, after making sure you’re okay with their security protocols and user-friendliness.

For more background, see the rest of my posts on savings bonds. I’m keeping all of mine for the foreseeable future, due to their tax deferral possibilities and other unique advantages. Compare the rates on these savings bonds to what you’re earning on your FDIC-insured bank deposits, and you may start hoarding them like me.

(In this post, I’m not going to provide all the background information on savings bonds that I normally do. For that, please read the older posts in my Savings Bonds category.)

When the Treasury announced the $10,000 purchase limit for 2012, a few readers asked if you should buy savings bonds in January, or wait until later in the year. Since then, a few things have happened. For one, the Federal Reserve has basically said that they will keep their target fed funds rates at zero until late 2014, while setting a target inflation rate at 2% annually. Translation: Interest rates on savings accounts and similar products will be remain crap while the things we buy get more expensive.

Also, we have another month’s worth of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data which is how the inflation rate is defined for savings bonds. The next 6-month variable rate update will be based on the CPI-U change between September 2011 and March 2012. We are halfway there:

CPI-U
Sep 2011 226.889
Oct 2011 226.421
Nov 2011 226.230
Dec 2011 225.672
Jan 2012 ?
Feb 2012 ?
Mar 2012 ?

You can see that inflation is actually negative over these three months. However, user MoneyOCD of Bogleheads posted this informational chart showing that in recent years there have been many periods of negative inflation from September to December, only to be followed by periods of higher inflation from December to March.

Basically, making predictions now is premature. If you buy in January through April, you will get a fixed rate of 0%, and a variable rate of 3.06% for six months. Given the interest rate environment, this is pretty much one of the best options for “safe” money. If you wait all the way until May, you’ll get something new based on whatever happens to inflation the next few months along with a fixed rate that will most likely be zero again. The inflation rate resets every 6 months based on your purchase month.

In general, if you have the money and are looking to put it in shorter-term, low risk investments that are guaranteed not to lose money (in terms of face value), I would be maxing out my limit on savings bonds for 2012. Keep in mind that savings bonds can’t be cashed in for an entire year after purchase. My personal opinion on the short-term? I don’t see any benefit in waiting until May. If you have money to put aside now, buy Series I savings bonds now. If you don’t, just wait until you do. The rate is already higher than savings accounts or 1-year CDs, and by waiting around in a 0.75% savings account or 1-year CD you’ll be missing out in interest.

If you’re looking to buy in January, I’d put in your order today at TreasuryDirect. It’s better to buy near the end of the month, as you get credit for the entire month no matter if you buy at the beginning or the end.

Here’s a reminder regarding an opportunity to buy savings bonds near the end of May and receive an annualized return of 2.51% over the next 11 months. This would be 1% more than the highest current CD rates, with potential for continued higher interest. See this previous post for more details. The main catch to this opportunity is that you will not be able to sell your savings bonds at all for the next 11 months.

The reason why you want to buy at the end of the month is that savings bonds are labeled by month, and as long you buy anytime in May, it will be stamped with a May 2011 date. Then, on the first day of May 2012, you can redeem for an entire year’s worth of interest. However, you don’t want to miss the deadline, because then your bond will end up an April 2011 bond. The annual purchase limit is currently $5,000 in paper I-bonds and $5,000 in online I-bonds per Social Security Number. For a couple, that’s $20,000 per year.

For electronic bond purchases, Ken of DepositAccounts conducted an experiment as to how late you can wait to buy them on TreasuryDirect. To summarize, in order to avoid this, you should enter your purchase order a minimum of two business days before the last day of the month. For peace of mind, I would pad it 4 business days. You can schedule your purchase ahead of time online (recommended).

For paper bond purchases, you can visit your local bank and ask to buy them. Here are detailed instructions. Not all banks do this, so check ahead of time. The issue date of the savings bond will be the same day that the bank accepts payment. This date will be noted clearly on the application, and the bank should also stamp it to confirm. In this case, if you are familiar with the bank and you have the money available, you could conceivable wait until the last day the bank is open before the end of the month. Again, I’d try a couple days beforehand to be safe.

New inflation numbers for March 2011 were announced on April 15th, so it’s time for the usual semi-annual update and rate predictions. This time around presents a good buying opportunity for a low-risk investment with interest rates higher than current bank CDs.

New Inflation Rate
September 2010 CPI-U was 218.439. March 2011 CPI-U was 223.467, for a semi-annual increase of 2.30%. Using the official formula, the variable interest rate for the next 6 months will be approximately 4.60%, depending on the upcoming fixed rate announcement.

Purchase and Redemption Timing Tips
You can’t redeem until 12 months have gone by, and any redemptions within 5 years incur a interest penalty of the last 3 month of interest. A known “trick” with I-Bonds is that if you buy at the end of the month, you’ll still get all the interest for the entire month as if you bought it in the beginning of the month. It’s best to give yourself a little buffer time though, since if you wait too long your effective purchase date may be bumped into the next month.

Buying in April

If you buy before the end of April, the fixed rate portion of I-Bonds will be 0.0%. You will be guaranteed an variable interest rate of 0.74% for the next 6 months, for a total rate of 0 + 0.74 = 0.74%. For the 6 months after that, the total rate will be 0.0 + 4.60 = 4.60%. Let’s say we hold for the minimum of one year and pay the 3-month interest penalty. If you buy on April 30th and sell on April 1, 2012, you’ll earn a 1.66% annualized return for an 11-month holding period, for which the interest is also exempt from state income taxes. This is better than any 1-year bank CD that I can find right now, keeping in mind the liquidity concerns and the purchase limits.

Given that you lose the last 3 months of interest (again, for holding less than 5 years), it might be better to wait long enough to grab that 4.60% for the entire 6-month period. If you buy on April 30th and hold until July 1st, 2012, you’d achieve a annualized return of ~2.29% over 14 months.

Buying in May

If you wait until May, you will get a new unknown fixed rate plus 4.60% for the first 6 months. My guess for the fixed rate would be 0.0% again, given current real yields for TIPS. The next 6 months will be based on an unknown rate based on future inflation. Worst case scenario, there will be zero inflation and you get paid nothing. Even in that case, if you buy on May 31st, 2011 and sell on May 1st, 2012, you would end up with an annualized return of 2.51% over 11 months.

If you are looking simply for the highest interest rate for a short period, then it would likely be better to wait until May 31st to buy up your savings bonds this year. If CPI inflation is very low or negative for the next 6 months and you are holding for at least 14 months, then it may end up being slightly better to buy in April. In the end, there’s more potential upside for buying in May, so that’s what I plan to do.

Low Purchase Limits
The annual purchase limit is now $5,000 in paper I-bonds and $5,000 in online I-bonds per Social Security Number. For a couple, that’s $20,000 per year. Buy online at TreasuryDirect.gov. As for paper, here is a post on how to buy paper savings bonds from your local bank. Some larger banks may have an electronic process.

For more background, see the rest of my posts on savings bonds. I’m keeping all of mine for the foreseeable future, due to their tax deferral possibilities and other unique advantages.

Here’s a blast from the past. I think I was reading an article about how savings bonds stop earning interest after 30 years, and so I asked my mom if she bought any bonds when I was born. I don’t know why, I figured that’s just what people did back then. It turned out she did, and the earliest bonds happen to stop earning interest next this month. She dug them out of storage, and sent me a scan of them:

She bought an EE savings bond with a face value of $100 for the purchase price of $50 in February of 1981. I was two years old. Using the savings bond calculator at TreasuryDirect, I found the current value to be $300.04. So over the last thirty years, the value went up 6x. This works out to an annualized return of about 6.1%.

According to TreasuryDirect.gov, for bonds issued before November 1982:

Bonds which have not reached final maturity are earning interest at either guaranteed or market-based rates; whichever produces the higher redemption value.

The guaranteed “original maturity period” was 9 years for this bond, which meant it was guaranteed to be worth the face value of $100 after 9 years. That works out to an 8.0% annual interest rate. If only we could get such a guaranteed return now, but the early 80s was a time of high inflation.

When the original maturity period ends, the bond enters a new 10-year maturity period where the government can reset the minimum rate. That’s why my bond is now earning only 4%. I can’t find the market rate for 1981, though. I could probably calculate it if I really wanted to, as it is defined as “85% of the average of 5-year Treasury marketable security yields”. The market rate in November 1982 was 13.05%!

If you have some old savings bonds, find them before they stop earning interest completely. In addition, the IRS supposedly requires you to report the interest as earned in the year of final maturity, even if you don’t redeem it. If you have a lost, stolen or destroyed savings bond, you will need to fill out Form PD F 1048. Also check out this Treausury Hunt page.