Here is an article about dividends by Capital Group. I didn’t really find the analysis very actionable, but I did like their chart that tracked the historical yields of the S&P 500 index, the MSCI ACWI index, and 10-year US Treasury bonds from 2000 to 2020.
The MSCI ACWI Index is a global stock index that tracks ” large- and mid-cap stocks across 23 developed and 24 emerging markets.”. Basically, a world stock market index that includes US and all other global stock markets.
I know that the total performance of international stocks has underperformed the S&P 500 for a while now, but holding international stocks does seem to consistently boost your overall dividend yield. In addition, I don’t see a strong direct relationship between dividend yields and interest rates.
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If you go farther back 51 years, 1970 thru 2021, S&P 500 seems to outperform, with lower standard deviation and higher sharpe ratio. Take comparable Vanguard funds as an example. The Vanguard S&P 500 = CAGR 11.07%, SD 16.88%, SR 0.46. Not the same, but presumably similar, the Vanguard Total World Stock Index = CAGR 9.87%, SD 17.47%, SR 0.38.
Interesting, where did those numbers come from? Has Total World Stock even been around since 1970?
US02Y is now near 2% vs. SPY 1.28% yield.