How To Predict T-Bill Rates?

A commenter asked how do you predict rates for T-Bills, which I have been buying. I have no idea. I’ve never even taken Econ 101. I did a search and found this [pdf] article titled ‘Using Federal Funds Futures Rates to Predict Federal Reserve Actions’. If someone wants to read that and see if it helps, be my guest. From what I read, the conclusion was “yeah you can try, but not very accurately”.

Since I’m on an Excel kick right now, I found some historical data on the Fed Funds Rate and previous 4-Week Treasury Bill rates. I graphed them together, along with a trendline of the 4-Week T-Bill rates:

Well, there is somewhat of a correlation… and that’s about all I got. It may lag as much as 1 percentage point behind the Fed Rate, or be very close like now. I’m sure someone else out there knows more and can share. I just figure it’ll be a competitive rate to bank returns, but the tax considerations which many people might ignore make them more attractive, as outlined in a previous post.