Historical Inflation Chart: 10-Year Rolling Average 1872-2022

Posted on December 1, 2022 // 4 Comments

Advisor Perspectives has a nice chart of 150 years of historical inflation (1872-2022). I appreciate that it includes both the short-term monthly inflation numbers as well as the 10-year rolling average over this long period of time.

A few basic observations:

  • From a long-term perspective, there have been many large sharp spikes in inflation throughout the entire period. Inflation has been a persistently recurring concern.
  • From roughly 1872-1940, there were extreme swings between both high inflation and high deflation. Of course, this was also when the dollar was (mostly) on the gold standard.
  • From roughly 1950 onward, the rolling 10-year average for inflation has still varied from ~2% to ~9% annually. Given our current low 10-year average, inflation could continue to be elevated for many years and not look out of place on this chart.

My primary takeaway is to always stay mindful of long-term inflation risk. I don’t know what inflation will be next month or next year, but I am confident that it’s coming sooner or later. Some applications (my opinion):

  • The 30-year fixed rate mortgage continues to be a great inflation hedge. (Even at high interest rates, that might soon result in lower prices.) As long as you lock in a monthly payment that you can comfortably afford and plan to stay a while, your monthly mortgage payment will only effectively get cheaper over time as inflation eats away at it. If rates drop, you can refinance. If rates rise, you can keep it forever and even rent the property out if you move, as high rates means inflation likely boosted rents while your mortgage payment stayed the same.
  • On the flip side, according to Macrotrends, the a 30-year Treasury bond yielded only 1% a year back in 2020. Long-term nominal bonds became a popular portfolio diversifier while rates were dropping (performance chasing), but in reality they became a ticking inflation bomb. I’m still avoiding long-term nominal bonds today.
  • A lifetime annuity has definite upsides, but inflation will eat away at the spending power over what could be 30 years. Maybe you’ll get older and spend less each year anyway, but I’d still maintain other assets (like stocks) to hedge that inflation risk. I like single premium immediate annuities as a possible tool for retirement income, but not as the only or primary tool.
  • TIPS are complex yet intriguing. I’m still not sure what the best play is right now, but I am happy to keep holding them as part of my bond portfolio. I’m leaning towards moving away from ETFs and more towards a ladder of individual bonds, especially if the real rates on long-term TIPS go any higher.
Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

The Best Health Savings Accounts (HSA) Providers: Fidelity and Lively/Schwab

Posted on November 29, 2022 // 27 Comments

Updated for 2022. It’s open enrollment season, and there is better than a 50/50 chance that you will enroll in a high-deductible health plan. That means that you are also eligible to contribute to a Health Savings Account (HSA), which has triple-tax-free benefits: tax-deductible contributions, tax-free earnings growth, and tax-free withdrawals when used for qualified medical expenses (image source). This makes them better than even Traditional and Roth IRAs (image source).

Are you an HSA spender or HSA investor? As a spender, you contribute to the HSA, grab the tax-deduction, and then treat it like a piggy bank and spend it down whenever you have a qualified healthcare expense. You don’t have that annoying “use-it-or-lose-it” feature of Flexible Spending Accounts (FSA), and most offer FDIC insurance on your cash.

As an investor, you are trying to maximize the tax benefits of HSAs by contributing as much as possible, investing in growth assets like stocks, and then avoiding withdrawals until retirement. If you have the financial means, you would max out the contribution limits ($3,850 for individual and $7,300 for family coverage in 2022, slightly more if age 55+) and then pay for your healthcare expenses out-of-pocket instead of withdrawing from the HSA. You should keep a “forever” digital PDF copy of all your healthcare expenses. Technically, you can still withdraw the amounts of all those expenses tax-free at any time in the future, even decades later.

You can pick your own HSA provider, and some are much worse than others! Morningstar has updated their 2022 Health Savings Account landscape report (e-mail required). After reading through the entire thing, my take is that you really only need to consider the two best HSA plans: Fidelity HSA and Lively HSA.

Similar to IRAs, you don’t need to use the default provider that your employer recommends. As long as you are covered by an HSA-eligible health plan on the first of the month, you can open an account with any provider. From the Lively site:

My health insurance or employer is offering an HSA. Do I need to go with the option they provide?

No. Because an HSA is an individual account, you are free to choose whichever HSA provider you want to work with (e.g., Lively).

Source: “Publication 969 (2018), Health Savings Accounts and Other Tax-Favored Health Plans.”

In addition, you can transfer the balance in an existing HSA to another HSA provider at any time, even if no longer covered by an HSA-eligible health plan.

Fidelity and Lively HSA for spenders. Both have the least fees and a safe place for your cash. Others HSAs have maintenance fees, minimum balance requirements, and more “annoyance” fees.

  • No minimum balances.
  • No maintenance fees.
  • No paper statement fees.
  • No account closing fee.
  • FDIC-insured cash balances.

Fidelity offers the best potential interest rate on cash via the Fidelity® Government Cash Reserves money market fund (FDRXX) as a core position, which currently pays more than their FDIC cash sweep option. Note that this money market fund is very conservative but is not FDIC-insured.

Fidelity and Lively HSA for investors. Both feature a low-cost way to invest your contributions for long-term growth:

  • No minimum balance required in spending account in order to invest.
  • Offers access to all core asset classes.
  • Offers free self-directed access to ETFs, individual stocks, bonds, and mutual funds.
  • Offers “guided portfolios” for automated investing.

Fidelity quietly offers the institutional shares of their Fidelity Freedom Index “target date” mutual fund line-up with a very low expense ratio of ~0.08%. It’s a bit confusing as you must choose the self-directed “Fidelity HSA” option to access this auto-pilot fund. The self-directed option has no annual fee and also includes access to ETFs, individual stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. Be aware that the Fidelity HSA sign-up page may try to steer you towards the different “Fidelity Go HSA” for guided investing, but that robo-advisor charges an annual advisory fee of 0.35% per year for balances of $25,000 and above (no advisory fee while your balance is under $25,000).

Lively also has similar “guided portfolio” robo-advisor option that charges a 0.50% annual advisory fee. Morningstar dinged Lively for this, but Lively also offers a self-directed brokerage window with Schwab. That means you can invest in any ETF with zero commissions at Schwab including building your own DIY portfolio using index ETFs, mutual funds, individuals stocks, or individual bonds. (Previously TD Ameritrade, but Schwab bought TD Ameritrade.) The Schwab brokerage option has no annual fee with a $3,000 minimum balance, otherwise if you are under $3,000 it costs $24 a year. If you already have your own financial advisor connected to Schwab, you can allow them to manage your HSA as well.

A simple Vanguard ETF portfolio might be 50% US Stocks (VTI), 30% International Stocks (VXUS), 20% US Bonds (BND). The total weighted expense ratio of such a portfolio would be less than 0.05% annually and fully customizable for the DIY investor. Both accounts can cost basically nothing above the expense ratio of the cheapest ETFs you can find – you really can’t ask for more than that!

Fidelity and Lively have the least amount of extra and/or hidden fees:

How do Fidelity and Lively make money then? Your employer has to pay a fee to HSA providers. It’s still much cheaper for them than your old full-price health insurance premium, of course.

Bottom line. Both Fidelity HSA and Lively HSA are excellent options for your Health Savings Account funds. If you want auto-pilot investing, the cheapest option is the Fidelity Freedom Index Institutional shares. Alternatively, Lively is an independent HSA provider with a modern feel and a good history of customer-friendly fee practices and service. DIY investors can use the Lively/Schwab brokerage window to invest in a mix of Vanguard or other index ETFs.

(Disclosures: I am not an affiliate of Fidelity, although I would if they had such a program. I am an affiliate of Lively and may receive a commission if you open an account through my link. Thanks for your support of this site.)

Filed Under: Insurance, Investing, Retirement //

4% Guaranteed Withdrawal Rate (Inflation-Adjusted) with TIPS Ladder

Posted on November 8, 2022 // 15 Comments

Retirement income planning would be so much easier if you could buy a known amount of guaranteed lifetime income that automatically adjusted for inflation. However, the reality is that not a single insurance company in the entire world is willing to take on that long-term inflation risk. The only possibility left is to ladder inflation-linked bonds (TIPS) so that each year you would cash out some bonds and interest to create your own DIY inflation-adjusted income.

Thanks to the rising real yields of TIPS, you can now create a 30-year TIPS ladder that will create effectively a 4% guaranteed real withdrawal rate. If you put $1,000,000 into a 30-year TIPS ladder right now, you will get $40,000+ income for year 1 and then another $40,000 adjusted for inflation (CPI-U) annually for the next 29 years. All backed by the US government.

Allan Roth did the hark work and bought a 30-year TIPS ladder x 4.3% real withdrawal rate using $100,000 of his own money on the secondary market. He also introduced me to eyebonds.info, which has a lot of helpful spreadsheets for the hardcore DIY TIPS and Savings I bond investor.

Such a TIPS ladder will only go for 30 years, and you end up with nothing at the end, so it does have some limitations. If you retire at 65 and spend your 4% every year, this portfolio will be completely depleted by age 95. If you start at 55, it will end at 85. Therefore, this tool would work best as a supplement to your Social Security benefits and perhaps keeping some stocks for potential upside…

Now, Allan Roth also wrote about the “No Risk” portfolio where you put most of your money in zero coupon bonds that will guarantee you don’t lose any dollars but put the rest in stocks for upside potential. It feels good to know you’ll both start and end with at least, say $100,000. However, the reality is that you are still exposed to inflation risk, as $100,000 in 10 years may be worth a lot less than $100,000 today.

What if you simply replaced those traditional-style bonds with TIPS as your super-safe base? You’d remove the inflation risk while still keeping minimal credit risk. Enter the concept of Upside Investing by Lawrence Kotlikoff (author of Money Magic).

Upside Investing, as I described in recent Forbes and Seeking Alpha columns, is simple as pie.

– You invest in the S&P and TIPS/I-Bonds and specify a period during which you’ll convert your stocks to TIPS/I-Bonds.

– You build a base living standard floor assuming all stock investments are lost.

– You increase your living standard floor only when and if you convert stocks to TIPS/I-Bonds.

If you can lock in your TIPS ladder at a decent real yield, you could have an intriguing combination of a very safe base income, while still giving you a very good chance of a higher income with stock returns anywhere close to historical averages.

In rough terms, what if a 75% TIPS/25% stock portfolio offered a minimal guaranteed withdrawal rate of 3% real for 30 years (only this low if stocks go to zero!) with the good probability that you would likely be able to withdrawal 4% and quite possibly more. For a conservative investor, knowing you have a rock-solid safe floor would allow you to spend freely with the rest. 🥳 Something to investigate further while TIPS real yields are decent again.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

Savings I Bonds November 2022 Interest Rate: 6.48% Inflation Rate, 0.40% Fixed Rate

Posted on November 1, 2022 // 14 Comments

November 2022 rates officially announced. May 2022 rate confirmed at 9.62%. 11/1/2022 press release. The variable inflation-indexed rate for I bonds bought from November 2022 through April 2023 will indeed be 6.48% as predicted. Every single I bond will also earn this rate eventually for 6 months, depending on the initial purchase month. The fixed rate for I bonds bought from November 2022 through April 2023 will be 0.40% (up from zero, and right in the midpoint of my guess), for a composite rate of 6.89% for 6 months. Still a good deal, either buying now or in January when the purchase limits reset.

See you again in mid-April for the next early prediction for May 2023.

Original post 10/13/22:

Inflation still 🚀 😬 Savings I Bonds are a unique, low-risk investment backed by the US Treasury that pay out a variable interest rate linked to inflation. With a holding period from 12 months to 30 years, you could own them as an alternative to bank certificates of deposit (they are liquid after 12 months) or bonds in your portfolio.

New inflation numbers were just announced at BLS.gov, which allows us to make an early prediction of the November 2022 savings bond rates a couple of weeks before the official announcement on the 1st. This also allows the opportunity to know exactly what a October 2022 savings bond purchase will yield over the next 12 months, instead of just 6 months. You can then compare this against a November 2022 purchase.

New inflation rate prediction. March 2022 CPI-U was 287.504. September 2022 CPI-U was 296.808, for a semi-annual increase of 3.24%. Using the official formula, the variable component of interest rate for the next 6 month cycle will be 6.48%. You add the fixed and variable rates to get the total interest rate. The fixed rate hasn’t been above 0.50% in over a decade, but if you have an older savings bond, your fixed rate may be up to 3.60%.

Tips on purchase and redemption. You can’t redeem until after 12 months of ownership, and any redemptions within 5 years incur an interest penalty of the last 3 months of interest. A simple “trick” with I-Bonds is that if you buy at the end of the month, you’ll still get all the interest for the entire month – same as if you bought it in the beginning of the month. It’s best to give yourself a few business days of buffer time. If you miss the cutoff, your effective purchase date will be bumped into the next month.

Buying in October 2022. If you buy before the end of October, the fixed rate portion of I-Bonds will be 0%. You will be guaranteed a total interest rate of 0.00 + 9.62 = 9.62% for the next 6 months. For the 6 months after that, the total rate will be 0.00 + 6.48 = 6.48% for the subsequent 6 months.

Let’s look at a worst-case scenario, where you hold for the minimum of one year and pay the 3-month interest penalty. If you theoretically buy on October 31st, 2022 and sell on October 1st, 2023, you’ll earn a ~7.01% annualized return for an 11-month holding period, for which the interest is also exempt from state income taxes. If you theoretically buy on October 31st, 2022 and sell on January 1, 2024, you’ll earn a ~6.90% annualized return for an 14-month holding period. Comparing with the best interest rates as of October 2022, you can see that this is much higher than a current top savings account rate or 12-month CD.

Buying in November 2022. If you buy in November 2022, you will get 6.48% plus a newly-set fixed rate for the first 6 months. The new fixed rate is officially unknown, but is loosely linked to the real yield of short-term TIPS. My guess is somewhere between 0.1% and 0.6%, but who knows. If I Every six months after your purchase, your rate will adjust to your fixed rate (set at purchase) plus a variable rate based on inflation.

If you have an existing I-Bond, the rates reset every 6 months depending on your purchase month. Your bond rate = your specific fixed rate (based on purchase month, look it up here) + variable rate (total bond rate has a minimum floor of 0%). So if your fixed rate was 1%, you’ll be earning a 1.00 + 6.48= 7.48% rate for six months.

Buy now or wait? Given that the current I bond rate is already much higher than the equivalent alternatives, I would personally buy in October to lock in the high rate for the longest possible time. I would grab the “bird in the hand”, even though you might get a slightly higher fixed rate in November. I already purchased up to the limits first thing in January 2022, and I’ll probably buy again in January 2023. However, I am also buying TIPS as the real yield right now is higher than that of I bonds.

Unique features. I have a separate post on reasons to own Series I Savings Bonds, including inflation protection, tax deferral, exemption from state income taxes, and educational tax benefits.

Over the years, I have accumulated a nice pile of I-Bonds and consider it part of the inflation-linked bond allocation inside my long-term investment portfolio. Right now, the inflation protection “insurance” is paying off with high yields and no principal risk.

Annual purchase limits. The annual purchase limit is now $10,000 in online I-bonds per Social Security Number. For a couple, that’s $20,000 per year. You can only buy online at TreasuryDirect.gov, after making sure you’re okay with their security protocols and user-friendliness. You can also buy an additional $5,000 in paper I bonds using your tax refund with IRS Form 8888. If you have children, you may be able to buy additional savings bonds by using a minor’s Social Security Number. TheFinanceBuff has a nice post on gifting options if you are a couple and want to frontload your purchases now. TreasuryDirect also allows trust accounts to purchase savings bonds.

Note: Opening a TreasuryDirect account can sometimes be a hassle as they may ask for a medallion signature guarantee which requires a visit to a physical bank or credit union and snail mail. This doesn’t apply to everyone, but the takeaway is don’t wait until the last minute.

Bottom line. Savings I bonds are a unique, low-risk investment that are linked to inflation and only available to individual investors. You can only purchase them online at TreasuryDirect.gov, with the exception of paper bonds via tax refund. For more background, see the rest of my posts on savings bonds.

[Image: 1950 Savings Bond poster from US Treasury – source]

Filed Under: Banking, Investing, Retirement, Savings Bonds //

Target Date Retirement Fund Average Glidepath Trends 2012-2022

Posted on October 24, 2022 // Leave a Comment

Everyday investors now have trillions of dollars invested inside Target Date Funds (TDFs) with their “set-and-forget” simplicity that provides “industry-standard” investment advice for a relatively low cost. Many people are out there selling better solutions, but I think TDFs are a good default that lets you focus on the saving. Another benefit of TDFs is their structure tends to encourage inaction – There was relatively little TDF selling activity during the March 2020 temporary market drop.

The Callan article Target Date Funds and the Ever-Evolving Glidepath reminds us that “industry standard” investment advice is not written in stone. It’s set by big institutions with marketing departments and does change over time. You are handing over the reigns to the fund provider, be it Fidelity, Vanguard, T. Rowe Price, Blackrock, etc.

Here are the overall trends to TDF asset allocation from in the decade from 2012 to 2022:

  • Growth assets (stocks, REITs, junk bonds) went up across the board. Ex. At age 25, growth asset allocation grew from 89% in 2012 to 94% in 2022.
  • Fixed income (bonds) have gotten slightly riskier credit ratings at younger ages (presumably to boost yield a bit).
  • Inflation-sensitive assets (TIPs, commodities) went down across the board in 2021/2022 than in 2012, only to tick up slightly looking forward in 2022.

What I see are big institutions making small, gradual changes to the glidepath, with the directions almost certainly to be towards mild performance chasing. Nobody gets fired from the executive suite for doing that. From 2012-2022, the stock market has done quite well (more of that!), bond yields have been tiny (let’s crank up the risk to boost yield!), and inflation was very mild (less of that, we don’t need to worry about infla-whoops!). If the next decade has low stock returns, high bond interest rates, and lots of inflation, I would expect a reactionary-but-slow turning of the enormous cruise ship.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

Multi-Year Guaranteed Annuity (MYGA) to Immediate Annuity Example (Rates Now 5%+)

Posted on October 19, 2022 // 13 Comments

Many people hold a blanket assumption that all annuities are bad investments. Indeed, many annuities offer confusing promises with high hidden expenses, but I believe that certain annuities can be a very useful tool in retirement planning. First, the annuities must be transparent with clear, contractual guarantees such that you can directly comparison shop different products against each other. Two of the most simple types of annuities fit this definition:

  • Single premium immediate annuities (SPIA). These are for lifetime income in retirement. You pay an upfront lump sum (single premium), and you immediately start receiving a guaranteed monthly income check for the rest of your life (or joint life).
  • Multi-year guaranteed annuity (MYGA) fixed deferred annuity. These are for the accumulation stage. You put up your principal and similar to a bank certificate of deposit, you receive a fixed, guaranteed rate of return for a certain number of years. The investment growth is tax-deferred until age 59.5 when you withdraw your funds without the 10% IRS penalty. At that time, you could also roll into an SPIA.

As of this writing, MYGA rates are over 5% at the 5-year term and longer. (Image above is a sample chart of the growth of a $10,000 investment for a 5-year MYGA at 5.10%.) These rates are still higher than prevailing bank certificate rates and Treasury bond rates, while also offering the potential for tax-deferred growth while in the annuity wrapper.

There are additional wrinkles of course like early withdrawal penalties and annual withdrawal allowances, but the most important part is that you you can compare apples to apples at websites like Blueprint Income, Stan the Annuity Man, and ImmediateAnnuities.com.

MYGAs 101: Who are MYGAs a good fit for? They aren’t for everyone. I wondered how a MYGA would fit into something like the Standardized Personal Finance Advice Flowchart.

  • You have adequate emergency funds.
  • You don’t have debt besides primary mortgage.
  • You have maxed out your available Roth IRA, 401k/403b/457, and HSA contributions.
  • As part of your asset allocation, you would like more room for a CD/fixed-income style investment in a tax-deferred vehicle.
  • You are saving for close to a traditional retirement age (i.e. don’t need any liquidity until age 59.5).
  • You have looked at your state-specific guaranty limits and will stay below them for any single insurance issuer. You understand what the state guaranty system does and doesn’t provide.

I have written in more detail about MYGAs here:

Low-Risk MYGA to SPIA $100,000 Example. Let’s say you are a risk-averse 50 yo investor (Texas resident) with $100,000 and want to retire at age 60. Based on actual rates available as of this writing (10/19/2022), you could put the $100,000 into a 10-year MYGA at 5.20% today and in 10 years you will have $166,019 due to the tax-deferred compounding. Both the initial and final values are well within the Texas state guaranty limits of $250,000 per insurer and the insurer Oceanview is rated A-.

I can’t tell you the future, but let’s say you are 60yo and have that $166,019 today. At current rates, with $166,019 you can get an immediate annuity from Nationwide Insurance paying between $955 a month or $11,500 a year (female) and $11,800 a year or $987 a month (male) for the rest of your life. This will stack with your Social Security to create a very stable income base to complement your riskier growth assets, even if you live to 110. Note that you may owe income taxes on the pro-rated amount of your income that is marked as capital gains.

You are giving up the possibility of higher returns via the stock market in exchange for a slow-and-steady option with no stock market volatility. If you were going to invest in bonds anyway for part of your portfolio, this option offers the potential for higher returns in a tax-deferred wrapper (like with a Traditional IRA, you still owe taxes on gains at the end).

Bottom line: MYGAs can be a good tool to keep an eye upon. Each unique tool available has different features for the right situation. For example, a no-penalty CD offers the unique combination of a rate that you can always ratchet upward but will never go down (savings accounts can drop whenever they want), plus you have instant liquidity whenever you want. In contrast, this MYGA offers a significantly higher rate with tax-deferral benefits that can really add up over time, but you have extremely harsh early withdrawal penalties and you must do your due diligence and diversify to minimize any risk involved. You might find them useful for a portion of your portfolio, or you might not ever need either one.

Filed Under: Annuities, Banking, Investing, Retirement //

MMB Portfolio 2022 3rd Quarter Update: Dividend & Interest Income

Posted on October 5, 2022 // Leave a Comment

Here’s my quarterly income update for my Humble Portfolio (2022 Q3). I track the income produced as an alternative metric for performance. The total income goes up much more gradually and consistently than the number shown on brokerage statements (price), which helps encourage consistent investing. Imagine your portfolio as a factory that churns out dollar bills.

Background: Overall stock market dividend growth. Stock dividends are a portion of net profits that businesses have decided to distribute directly to shareholders, as opposed to reinvesting into their business, paying back debt, or buying back shares directly. The dividends may suffer some short-term drops, but over the long run they have grown faster than inflation.

In the US, the dividend culture is somewhat conservative in that shareholders expect dividends to be stable and only go up. Thus the starting yield is lower, but grows more steadily with smaller cuts during hard times. Here is the historical growth of the trailing 12-month (ttm) dividend paid by the Vanguard Total US Stock ETF (VTI), courtesy of StockAnalysis.com. Currently, 31% of VTI’s net earnings are sent to you as a dividend. Notice how it grows gradually, with the current annual dividend 80% higher than in September 2013:

European corporate culture tends to encourage paying out a higher (sometimes fixed) percentage of earnings as dividends, but that means the dividends move up and down with earnings. Thus the starting yield is higher but may not grow as reliably. Here is the historical growth of the trailing 12-month (ttm) dividend paid by the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS). Currently, 47% of VXUS’s net earnings are sent to you as a dividend. Notice how it stays more stable (but also dropped during 2020 due to COVID), with the current annual dividend only 20% higher than in September 2013:

The dividend yield (dividends divided by price) also serve as a rough valuation metric. When stock prices drop, this percentage metric usually goes up – which makes me feel better in a bear market. When stock prices go up, this percentage metric usually goes down, which keeps me from getting too euphoric during a bull market. Here’s a related quote from Jack Bogle (source):

The true investor will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to his dividend returns and to the operating results of his companies.

My personal portfolio income history. I started tracking the income from my portfolio in 2014. Here’s what the annual distributions from my portfolio look like over time:

  • $1,000,000 invested in my portfolio as of January 2014 would have generated about $24,000 in annual income over the previous 12 months. (2.4% starting yield)
  • If I reinvested the income but added no other contributions, today in 2022 it would have generated ~$53,000 in annual income over the previous 12 months.

This chart shows how the total annual income generated by my portfolio has changed. It’s not all about current yield.

TTM income yield. To estimate the income from my portfolio, I use the weighted “TTM” or “12-Month Yield” from Morningstar (checked 10/5/22), which is the sum of the trailing 12 months of interest and dividend payments divided by the last month’s ending share price (NAV) plus any capital gains distributed (usually zero for index funds) over the same period. The trailing income yield for this quarter was 3.33%, as calculated below. Then I multiply by the current balance from my brokerage statements to get the total income.

Asset Class / Fund % of Portfolio Trailing 12-Month Yield Yield Contribution
US Total Stock (VTI) 25% 1.74% 0.44%
US Small Value (VBR) 5% 2.30% 0.12%
Int’l Total Stock (VXUS) 25% 4.18% 1.05%
Emerging Markets (VWO) 5% 3.95% 0.20%
US Real Estate (VNQ) 6% 3.89% 0.23%
Inter-Term US Treasury Bonds (VGIT) 17% 1.42% 0.24%
Inflation-Linked Treasury Bonds (VTIP) 17% 6.24% 1.06%
Totals 100% 3.33%

 

Commentary. My ttm portfolio yield is now roughly 3.33%. (This is not the same as the dividend yield commonly reported in stock quotes, which just multiplies the last quarterly dividend by four.) Both US and international stock prices have gone down, and my ttm dividend yield has gone up. The price of my Treasury bonds have also gone down as nominal rates have gone up, but the yield will eventually go up as the money is reinvested into new bonds at higher rates. My TIPS yield has gone up significantly as it tracks CPI inflation. Of course, the NAV on my TIPS has also gone down, as real yields have gone up (again will be better as money is reinvested). TIPS are a bit complicated like that.

Use as a retirement planning metric. For goal planning purposes, I support the simple 4% or 3% rule of thumb, which equates to a target of accumulating roughly 25 to 33 times your annual expenses. I would lean towards a 3% withdrawal rate if you want to retire young (before age 50) and a 4% withdrawal rate if retiring at a more traditional age (closer to 65). It’s just a useful target, not a number sent down from a higher being. During the accumulation stage, your time is better spent focusing on earning potential via better career moves, improving in your skillset, and/or looking for entrepreneurial opportunities where you can have an ownership interest.

Even if do you reach that 25X or 30X goal, it’s just a moment in time. The market can shift, your expenses can shift, and so I find that tracking income makes more tangible sense in my mind and is more useful for those who aren’t looking for a traditional retirement. Our dividends and interest income are not automatically reinvested. They are another “paycheck”. Then, as with a traditional paycheck, we can choose to either spend it or invest it again to compound things more quickly. Even if we spend the dividends, this portfolio paycheck will still grow over time. You could use this money to cut back working hours, pursue a different career path, start a new business, take a sabbatical, perform charity or volunteer work, and so on.

Right now, I am happily in the “my kids still think I’m cool and want to spend time with me” zone. I am consciously choosing to work when they are at school but also consciously turning down any more work past that. This portfolio income helps me do that.

Filed Under: Goals, Investing, Retirement //

MMB Humble Portfolio 2022 3rd Quarter Update: Asset Allocation & Performance

Posted on October 5, 2022 // 2 Comments

portpie_blank200Here’s my quarterly update on my current investment holdings as of 10/4/22, including our 401k/403b/IRAs and taxable brokerage accounts but excluding real estate and side portfolio of self-directed investments. Following the concept of skin in the game, the following is not a recommendation, but just to share our real, imperfect, low-cost, diversified DIY portfolio. The goal of this “Humble Portfolio” is to create sustainable income that keeps up with inflation to cover our household expenses.

“Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have in their portfolio.” – Nassim Taleb

How I Track My Portfolio
I’m often asked how I track my portfolio across multiple brokers and account types. There are limited free options nowadays as Morningstar recently discontinued free access to their portfolio tracker. I use both Personal Capital and a custom Google Spreadsheet to track my investment holdings:

  • The Personal Capital financial tools and real-time tracking (free, my review) automatically logs into my different accounts, adds up my various balances, tracks my performance, and calculates my overall asset allocation daily.
  • Once a quarter, I also update my manual Google Spreadsheet (free, instructions) because it helps me calculate how much I need in each asset class to rebalance back towards my target asset allocation. I also create a new tab each quarter, so I have snapshot of my holdings dating back many years.

October 2022 Asset Allocation and YTD Performance
Here are updated performance and asset allocation charts, per the “Allocation” and “Holdings” tabs of my Personal Capital account.

Target Asset Allocation. I call this my “Humble Portfolio” because it accepts the repeated findings that individuals cannot reliably time the market, and that persistence in above-average stock-picking and/or sector-picking is exceedingly rare. Costs matter and nearly everyone who sells outperformance, for some reason keeps charging even if they provide zero outperformance! By paying minimal costs including management fees and tax drag, you can actually guarantee yourself above-average net performance over time.

I own broad, low-cost exposure to productive assets that will provide long-term returns above inflation, distribute income via dividends and interest, and finally offer some historical tendencies to balance each other out. I have faith in the long-term benefit of owning publicly-traded US and international shares of businesses, as well as the stability of high-quality US Treasury and municipal debt. My stock holdings roughly follow the total world market cap breakdown at roughly 60% US and 40% ex-US. I add just a little “spice” to the vanilla funds with the inclusion of “small value” ETFs for US, Developed International, and Emerging Markets stocks as well as additional real estate exposure through US REITs.

I strongly believe in the importance of knowing WHY you own something. Every asset class will eventually have a low period, and you must have strong faith during these periods to truly make your money. You have to keep owning and buying more stocks through the stock market crashes. You have to maintain and even buy more rental properties during a housing crunch, etc. A good sign is that if prices drop, you’ll want to buy more of that asset instead of less. I don’t have strong faith in the long-term results of commodities, gold, or bitcoin – so I don’t own them.

I do not spend a lot of time backtesting various model portfolios, as I don’t think picking through the details of the recent past will necessarily create superior future returns. Usually, whatever model portfolio is popular in the moment just happens to hold the asset class that has been the hottest recently as well.

Find productive assets that you believe in and understand, and just keep buying them through the ups and downs. Mine may be different than yours.

I have settled into a long-term target ratio of roughly 70% stocks and 30% bonds (or 2:1 ratio) within our investment strategy of buy, hold, and occasionally rebalance. This is more conservative than most people my age, but I am settling into a more “perpetual income portfolio” as opposed to the more common “build up a big stash and hope it lasts until I die” portfolio. My target withdrawal rate is 3% or less. Here is a round-number breakdown of my target portfolio.

  • 30% US Total Market
  • 5% US Small-Cap Value
  • 20% International Total Market
  • 5% International Small-Cap Value
  • 10% US Real Estate (REIT)
  • 20% US Treasury Nominal Bonds or FDIC-insured deposits
  • 10% US Treasury Inflation-Protected Bonds (or I Savings Bonds)

Commentary. According to Personal Capital, my portfolio down about 18% for 2022 YTD. My US and International stocks have dropped again (even more than the bonds, which also dropped) and so available cashflow is being placed into buying more of those asset classes.

During this last quarter, I sold all of my municipal bonds and bought US Treasuries instead. Due to the rising rates, I had no capital gains to worry about. When I previously cycled into muni bonds, munis were yielding 24% more than Treasuries even before accounting for the tax benefits. In September 2015, I compared the 1.78% SEC yield of Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Investor Shares (VWITX) to the 1.48% SEC yield of Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Investor Shares (VFITX). The ratio was 1.24. As of October 2022, the ratio is now 0.93 (3.26% vs. 3.51%). At those levels, I am getting compensated much less for the additional risk of municipal finances. My bond portfolio is now US Treasury bonds, bank/credit union CDs (bought if/when the rates exceed US Treasuries), TIPS, and savings I bonds. Can’t get higher quality than that.

I take solace that for now I see more shrinking P/E ratios as opposed to crashing earnings on the stocks side, my REITs are yielding more, and my bonds are yielding more. One good thing about more “normal” interest rates if they can hold is that it gives conservative (often older) savers a chance to keep their principal safe and still earn a small bit of income without market volatility. My primary fear remains that of war.

I’ll share about more about the income aspect in a separate post.

Filed Under: Goals, Investing, Retirement //

The “No Risk” Portfolio: Stock Upside Exposure with 100% Money Back Guarantee

Posted on September 7, 2022 // 5 Comments

Everyone loves a 100% money-back guarantee. A popular option on insurance policies is the “Return of Premium” rider. Let’s say you buy a $1,000,000 term life insurance for 30 years at $1,000 a year. At the end of 30 years, if you’re still alive, the insurance policy will no longer pay you the $1,000,000 if you die, but it will return all the premium you paid ($30,000). In your mind, you could think of it as “no risk” because you’ll get your $30,000 back no matter what!

Similarly, a very popular option on income annuities is the “Return of Principal” rider. Let’s say you pay $100,000 upfront in exchange for them paying you $7,000 in annual income for the rest of your life. What about the unlikely but possible chance that you die early in the first few years? A “return of principal” rider will guarantee that your survivors will at least get that $100,000 back. In your mind, you could think of it as “no risk” because you’ll get $100,000 back no matter what!

Create your own 100% Money Back Guarantee Portfolio. Insurance companies already sell complicated equity-indexed annuities that extend a form of this “no principal loss” to investing. But why not apply it to DIY investing? You may already see the flaw in the “no risk” terminology, but if you still like the psychological benefit of knowing you’ll have at least the same number of dollar bills come back to you after 10 years, read on to create your own “no risk” investment portfolio. Allan Roth writes about this in the AARP article Stock Market Investing for the Faint of Heart.

Let’s say you have $100,000. Right now, I see a 10-year FDIC-insured CD paying 3.60% APY (non-callable!) available from Vanguard. Using the Zero Risk Investment calculator from DepositAccounts, I know that I could put $70,210.56 into that CD today, and at the end of 10 years, I will be able to withdraw $100,000 no matter what. That means, I can take the remaining $29,789.44 today and buy stocks. Even if those stocks implode and lose every single penny of value, I will still have $100,000 at the end of 10 years. 100% Money Back Guarantee!

From that perspective, whatever you get from stocks is upside. This chart shows how much of the stock return I would still be exposed to. If stocks alone returned 8% annually, the overall portfolio would still go up about 5% annually, and my total at the end of 10 years would be $164,313.17.

If this level of safety sounds good to you, look more closely. That’s basically a 30% stocks/70% bank CD portfolio, and bank CDs are very similar to high-quality bonds. This is also why I prefer investing in US Treasury bonds and bank CDs for the bond part of my portfolio, I like having a portion of my portfolio that I don’t have to worry about at all. You could also use Treasury STRIPS (zero-coupon bonds) to guarantee a certain future payout.

What if you had a little more faith and just wanted a money back guarantee against the possibility of a 50% stock market loss after 10 years? That would allow you even more stock market exposure at roughly 45% stocks and 55% bank CDs:

This is an interesting alternative viewpoint for deciding your stock/bonds ratio. Personally, I think having even a 50% decline over a full 10-year span is very unlikely, but having a 50% decline over a 1 or 2 years span is very likely. That sharp decline (and all the real-world events causing that decline) is what makes people panic. If you have more faith in the resiliency of stocks, you can own more stocks. Only want to protect from a 10% loss after a 10-year span? Then you could hold 80% stocks to guarantee your money back in that scenario. If, on the other hand, you believe that stock returns are just a random walk with a greater dispersion in results over longer periods (including the possibility of the S&P 500 ending at 1,000 or less in 10 years), then you might want to own a lot less stocks.

Insurance companies are happy to sell you “return of premium” and “return of principal” riders (they are not free, they have a cost that either reduces your payout received or increases your premium cost) because know they can invest your money in the meantime and pocket the returns. If interest rates are high, that means inflation is likely high as well, and the buying power of your $100,000 is shrinking over time. So really, you are still exposed to risk: inflation risk.

More investment education can help us better tolerate stock market volatility, but we also need to be honest about our human tendencies. If using this “100% money back guarantee” structure helps you maintain a certain level of exposure to the stock market, then that can be a good thing. The fanciest investment strategy will fail if you can’t stay invested during the inevitable downturns.

Filed Under: Banking, Insurance, Investing, Retirement //

Money Magic: 5 Levers To Boost Your Safe Retirement Income By $50k+ a Year

Posted on September 5, 2022 // 5 Comments

In personal finance, I often think in terms of “levers” to push or pull. Here are five different levers to increase your portfolio safe withdrawal rate in retirement. Here are three levers used increase your final savings balance at retirement:

  • Asset allocation: How are you investing your money?
  • Savings rate: What percentage of your income do you save?
  • Time horizon: How long are you saving for?

Money Magic: An Economist’s Secrets to More Money, Less Risk, and a Better Life by Laurence Kotlikoff has another good example of pulling certain levers involving a couple that comes to him with their proposed retirement plan. By tweaking these five different levers, he is able to increase their allowable monthly spending (above housing) by over $6,000 a month for the rest of their lives (a net present value of over $1.5 million):

  • Delay taking Social Security. “First, they should wait to begin taking their Social Security benefits till age seventy, rather than immediately at sixty-two.”
  • Use your 401(k) to fund your retirement early years instead. “Next, they should start to withdraw from their 401(k) accounts now, rather than wait till seventy.”
  • Buy joint survivor single premium immediate annuities. “They also should take their 401(k) withdrawals in the form of joint survivor annuities.”
  • Downsize your house/condo. “Next, they should downsize their four-bedroom house by half.”
  • Move to a lower-tax state. “And finally, they should move to New Hampshire, which has no state income tax.”

The result:

This retirement makeover will make an amazing difference. In fact, it will more than double the Smith’s sustainable retirement spending! Under their original plan, the Smiths could afford to spend $5,337 per month in addition to covering their housing costs and taxes. Under the new plan, they can spend $11,819 per month in addition. That’s a ginormous increase and adds up to a $1,578,374 increase in lifetime spending measured in present value. In other words, the new plan amounts to handing the Smiths a bag filled with around $1.5 million in cash. This is money magic, pure and simple.

Now, I’m not sure I would use the term “magic”, but these are readily-available choices and the numbers come from the author’s MaxiFi retirement planning software. Living in a two-bedroom condo instead of a four-bedroom house is not the same experience, but at least you should explore it and weigh the costs and benefits. Using single premium immediate annuities to supplement Social Security is a way to guarantee income, and they are the simplest and most transparent form of annuities that are easy to comparison shop directly. I bet that significant percentage of retirees don’t even run a free, no-obligation quote.

I enjoying finding and thinking about the levers in my life. Even if not financially-optimal, it feels good to make a conscious choice and know that your actions matter. I know that I could have made more money by moving to a different state with better job opportunities, lower taxes, and/or lower cost of living. I know that I could have bought a bigger house, but also a much smaller house.

Filed Under: Book Reviews, Retirement //

JP Morgan Guide to Retirement 2022: Personal Finance Charts and Graphics

Posted on August 17, 2022 // 2 Comments

The JP Morgan Guide to Retirement slide deck is provided to its advisors to discuss retirement planning with clients. Updated annually, they kindly share this document publicly and it contains many useful charts and graphs, like the one above that reminds us to focus on what you can control, and to not waste time and energy on what you can’t. Below are a few more highlights from the 52-page 2022 edition that I found most helpful.

How does everyone else manage given all the news of low savings balances? Well, the reason it is called “Social Security” is because without it, there would be widespread poverty amongst seniors. The higher your spending, the more you must rely on your other assets to replace your current income in retirement.

You may have seen variations of this chart elsewhere, where “Quitter Quincy” who starts early but completely stops after only 10 years ends up at the same place as “Late Lyla” who starts late but contributes for another 30 years (triple the time).

How the average household spending changes by age (amongst relatively well-off households).

How to prioritize your savings.

Look how “Escalating Ethan” does nearly as well by allowing a 1% auto-escalation once a year.

You might think that because you pay 401k loans back into the original account plus interest that it won’t hurt your final retirement balance, but the missed compounding growth can really impact things.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

How Do Your 401(k) Stats Compare? Vanguard How America Saves 2022

Posted on August 10, 2022 // 2 Comments

Vanguard recently released the 2022 edition of their annual How America Saves report, a 110-page report targeted at industry insiders which looks at the nearly 5 million 401k, 403b, and other defined-contribution retirement plans. If you wish to geek out on 401k stats, there is a great deal of information in this report. Here are a few highlights based on 2021 data:

Employee contributions. The average/median employee contribution rate amongst participants was 7.3%/6.1% in 2021. Median means that half of people were saving more, while half were saving less. Average is weighted more by absolute dollar savings. (Click to enlarge.)

Employer contributions (company match). The total average/median contributions by year was 11.2%/10.3% (employer and employee combined). This means that the average/median employer/company contribution was about 4%. (Click to enlarge.)

How much does Vanguard think we should be saving? I found this quote noteworthy:

We believe participants need to reach a total saving rate of 12% to 15% or more to meet their retirement goals.

Maxing it out! Overall, 14% of participants saved the maximum annual amount of $19,500 ($26,000 age 50+) for 2021. However, 58% of those with incomes of $150,000+ maxed out their contributions. Here is the full breakdown by income:

(Not really sure how the folks earning under $15k per year are doing it… maybe these income numbers are after subtracting the contributions?)

How are people investing? Asset allocation. This chart shows the trends in asset allocation as the participants age. The increased use of Target-date funds and other professional management options has changed it so that young people are less likely to hold cash. (Click to enlarge.)

Account balances. The average account balance was $141,542 for 2021; the median balance was $35,345. This disparity means that a small number of plans with very high balances skews this often-quoted average upward. (Click to enlarge.)

I don’t pay much attention to this stat because the average includes workers across different age groups, income levels, job tenures, and so on. If I just switched jobs and rolled over my old 401k into an IRA, technically my balance is zero no matter what.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //
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